PGA Picks, Props and Bets

Diving for the Optimal – PGA DFS

Sony Open – 1/6/25

Waialae Country Club,  Honolulu, HI

Did you know that the average optimal DraftKings lineup for each PGA tournament has an average of 1.72 golfers in their lineup from the $6K range? This range is often overlooked and under discussed due to the volume of golfers and the lack of sexy names but this is where you can really set yourself apart. 

The focus of this article is to do a deeper dive into the $6k range each week so you can find the golfers you absolutely have to play if you want to build the optimal lineup but everyone wants to avoid talking about.

Before loading up on golfers in this range, it is important to understand the contests you are playing and their format. Cash games(50/50 and Double Ups) may not require you to play many risky golfers making this article less impactful to your builds. Same for small field or single entry contests where the winning lineup doesn’t usually require you to get close to the optimal build. 

The recommended golfers below are better suited for larger field, multi-entry tournaments where taking it down will almost require you to be optimal. Obviously this strategy will result in many more losses than wins but if you find the right pieces down low, you have a chance to do some damage.

On to The Sony Open!

This week there are 76 golfers in the $6k range so a lot to sort through. I will continue to play at least 2 golfers in the $6k range in every lineup as it continues to show up in the optimal.

My plan is to avoid the highest owned $6k golfer due to the volatile nature of these golfers and hope the chalk doesn’t hit.

Let’s go diving!

The Plays:

Brendan Todd – $6,700 – Favorite Play

Great course history, has not missed the cut in his last 5 starts at the Sony Open and has only missed the cut once in his 10 starts over the course of his career. Putting is the most important SG stat this week, which is Todd’s strongest SG category along with his short game. He is a recognizable name with great course history and a pretty strong stat profile so I imagine ownership will be pretty high. I think it’s worth eating and going overweight to the field.

Taylor Montgomery – $6,400

Montgomery feels like the exact opposite of the safety of Brendan Todd. He is someone who is very volatile and was either Cut or WD from 10 of his 21 tournaments with the majority coming in the back half of the year. What intrigues me is his ability to Putt at such a high level and showing ever so slight form in his last start at the RSM Classic. He has finished T-13 and T-12 in his only 2 starts here and the weakest part of his game, Off The Tee, he has gained strokes in both of those starts. Maybe there is something about Waialae that suits him. I would be somewhat surprised if he gets popular and I think is worth a spot in your lineups.

K.H. Lee – $6,600

The last of the course history plays for me is K.H. Lee. He missed the cut the first 2 attempts here but his last 4 he has made the cut and finished T-30 or better in 3 of the 4. In those 6 showings his stat profile is pretty spread out but his putter seems to either be really cold or slightly above average when he tees it up here. He had a really strong start to his fall swing but fell apart in November, missing 3 straight cuts and hasn’t played since 11/24. Over a month off is probably a good thing. Let’s hope he has been able to work out the November issues and finds comfort at a course he has done relatively well at.

Ryan Gerard- $6,800

Ryan has been back and forth between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour the last couple of years spending 2023 on the PGA Tour and 2024 on the Korn Ferry. He had varied success in 2023 but not enough to remain on tour. It looks like the time on the KFT really helped him figure some things out as he had a really strong second half to the year with a win and six T-16 or better finishes. His last start in 2024 was on the PGA Tour at the World Wide Technology Championship in November and he finished T-14. I banking on him having success against a pretty weak field by PGA standards and continuing his strong play from the end of last year into early 2025.

Yuta Sugiura – $6,200

Super cheap option that has limited stats but his 6 registered finishes across the Asian, European and PGA tours in 2024 are pretty impressive with the best being a 6th at the ZOZO Championship at the end of October. He gained strokes in all major categories that week. He will likely be popular in models since his only published strokes gained data is all from the ZOZO so monitor the ownership as the week progresses. If he gains steam, I would likely pivot off him with such a small sample size. He feels like a guy you may actually have to make a tough decision on for a $6k golfer because you don’t want to pass up on the opportunity of those strong finishes in 2024 at $6,200.

Quade Cummins – $6,500

Another golfer who spent 2024 on the Korn Ferry Tour, Quade is making only his second start on the PGA Tour in the last 3 years. He had a really strong year on the KFT and only missed 4 cuts over the course of the year. In the limited SG data we have, he has had some really strong Off The Tee and Putting results, the 2 categories I think will be most valuable this week. I also think its hard to pass on a dude named Quade Cummins. Lets go Quade!

The Fades

Chan Kim – $6,900

Coming in as the highest owned, is at the top of the $6k range, has been Cut here both times he has teed it up and his putter is his weakest club by a lot. Easy pass for me.

I hope you enjoyed the read and look forward to a great 2025! Hit’em straight!